Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, recently informed her country’s House of Assembly that their nation “is in a crisis with respect to an ageing and declining population.” By making this statement, the Prime Minister highlighted a pressing issue that affects not only Barbados but many other countries in the Caribbean.
The populations of many Caribbean countries are ageing, while the number of working individuals who contribute to taxes, fees, and levies necessary for funding pensions and maintaining health and education sectors is declining. If this trend continues, Barbados and other Caribbean countries will struggle to sustain the payment of pensions and healthcare, particularly for the elderly who are the primary users, as well as education. Mottley emphasized that “these services do not come cheap” and rely heavily on tax revenue, which is under threat due to the population decline.
She also noted that the country’s social care services are “integral to the health and wellness of Barbadians,” as they are to all Caribbean nations. If these services shrink or collapse, there will be an increased outflow of skilled and semi-skilled persons from the region, exacerbating the already troubling situation.
As one potential solution, the Prime Minister proposed opening Barbados to immigrants to enlarge the working population and increase productivity. She highlighted the benefits of CARICOM nationals contributing to sectors such as construction and agriculture, stating, “if you did not have those persons living here helping to control the price of work labourers in agriculture and construction, the level of inflation and cost of living would have gone through the roof at a much earlier point.”
Caribbean countries are at various stages of population ageing. By 2030, the share of persons aged 60 years and over in the total population will be higher than 20 percent for most countries.
Years ago, Antigua and Barbuda recognized the correlation between a larger population, economic growth, and the provision of social services, particularly for its aging population. This recognition has contributed to its position as the second fastest-growing Caribbean economy, behind only Guyana with its vibrant oil and gas industry.
Evidence of the positive impact of immigration is found in a background study for the World Development Report 2023, “Migrants, Refugees, and Societies.” The study examined the 14 independent CARICOM countries and the Dominican Republic, finding that in six of the countries, immigrants represent more than 10 percent of the population. In Antigua and Barbuda, immigrants make up as much as 30 percent of the population, directly contributing to the country’s ability to maintain its health and education services and pension payments. Meeting these obligations is particularly challenging for Antigua and Barbuda because it has no personal income tax, but the situation would have been much worse without the immigrant working population.
In 2020, the countries with the highest number of immigrants as a percentage of the population were: Antigua and Barbuda (30%), The Bahamas (16.2%), Belize (15.6%), and Barbados (12.1%). The two CARICOM countries with the lowest number of immigrants were Haiti and Jamaica, whose nationals comprise nearly 75 percent of the outflow of people from the region.
It should be noted that immigrants to Caribbean countries are not only other Caribbean nationals but also come from the US, Canada, the UK, and parts of Europe. In The Bahamas, for instance, where immigration from the Caribbean is tightly controlled, the numbers of non-Caribbean nationals are higher. Similarly, Belize, due to its location in Central America, has a far higher inflow of immigrants from neighbouring states than from the Caribbean.
Proximity to the Leeward and Windward Islands, and obligations for the movement of labour under the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), have caused Antigua and Barbuda to become the main destination country for OECS migrants. This movement has eased strains on other OECS countries and helped grow Antigua and Barbuda’s economy by providing a greater critical mass for production and sustaining social welfare.
The importance of migration has recently been emphasized for Australia – a country which, for decades, kept out immigrants and even paid other countries to take them. A recent report by the Migration Council of Australia promoted a policy to accept immigrants in Australia’s interest, projecting that the economy will be 40 percent larger as a result of migration by 2050. Migration will contribute $1.6 trillion to the Australian economy, underscoring its significance for Australia’s future prosperity.
Also, the American Immigration Council reports that “almost one in every seven people in the US is an immigrant. They are paying taxes, starting businesses, and making significant contributions across vital industries, including upkeep of health and education services.”
For some time, CARICOM countries have been working on rolling out elements of a Single Market and Economy, including the freedom of movement of labour. Currently, 12 specific skill categories are covered under the mobility agreement, including university graduates, artists, musicians, media workers, athletes, teachers, nurses, agricultural workers, and security guards.
While some level of immigration is allowed within CARICOM to enlarge working populations, much more needs to be done. For example, large oil and gas production in Guyana has brought significant demands. The International Labour Organization says that Guyana needs at least 160,000 additional workers, representing 20 percent of its population. The pull to developed countries, such as the US, Canada, and Britain, will also continue. All this will create competition for appropriate immigrants.
However, as Prime Minister Mottley has stated, and as the experience of Antigua and Barbuda has shown, immigration will only be acceptable and embraced by local populations if three conditions are met; it must be planned and orderly, with immigrants corresponding to needed skills over at least a 10-year period; the backgrounds of immigrants must be thoroughly checked for security reasons; and the culture, traditions, and values of the national society must be respected.
CARICOM leaders in government and the private sector should treat this issue with the urgent planning it deserves. A high-level group drawn from both sectors, advised by research from the University of the West Indies, should plan for the orderly migration and absorption of skilled and semi-skilled persons who are clearly needed.